Shit is going to hit the fan if Alabama loses this weekend.
It won’t be a damn picnic for Lane Kiffin if LSU loses, either. But a third Alabama loss? That becomes something much bigger than a bad Saturday in Baton Rouge.
It becomes confirmation for everyone who has already decided the era of elite Alabama football is over. That the program which spent years deciding who else was allowed to matter is now just another team fighting for its daily bread.
A Jean Valjean dropped into a real-life Hunger Games. Proud, powerful, battered and wondering how the hell it got here.
Yes, I just combined Les Misérables and the Hunger Games to explain Alabama football. Stay with me.
Win, and everybody can breathe. The playoff path looks inviting again. The bye week helped. Kalen DeBoer has the thing pointed in the right direction. We can all return to discussing football instead of the collapse of civilization.
Lose, and things get weird.
Alabama cannot handle weird.
It knew how to handle a disappointing afternoon under Nick Saban because there was always Nick Saban standing there afterward. The man was his own reassurance. A loss could feel like a correction on the way to something bigger. Saban always said, "Never waste a loss."
DeBoer doesn’t get that protection. Every loss invites a referendum on whether Alabama is still Alabama.
And the unfairness of that job starts with the two men everybody wants him to be.
Bear Bryant. Nick Saban. Pick one, or you aren’t good enough.
Saban won seven national championships, six at Alabama. He built that machine in the modern media era, with every practice report, recruiting decision and dissatisfied backup available for public consumption. The development was incredible. The expectations became permanent.
The advantages did not.
The rules changed. Players have more freedom. Money moves differently. Other schools can buy opportunities that Alabama once made seem exclusive to Tuscaloosa. Being Alabama still means an awful lot. It just doesn’t exempt you from the fight anymore.
That’s what makes Saturday so fascinating. DeBoer is trying to win a football game. A whole lot of people will be watching to decide whether an entire way of life has ended.
Meanwhile, Kiffin has won two straight and suddenly everybody on the bayou is ready to throw a parade.
Funny how quickly the existential crisis changes sidelines.
Coming next: what Alabama’s injuries explain—and what they don’t; the Kiffin mood swing; how Toney’s injury changes Notre Dame and the Heisman; why I’m picking Stockstill; NC State’s celebrity search; and whether Jimmy Sexton should be watching Congress.
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