Sometimes, nobody has to be the villain.
You can appreciate the intentions. Respect the people involved. Understand why everybody thought it would work.
And still reach the same conclusion: This just isn’t right.
That’s where I’m getting with Arch Manning and Texas.
Grace Potter sings, “I release you,” in her song Release. There’s something powerful about that idea. Letting go doesn’t have to come with anger or resentment. Sometimes, you care enough about somebody to acknowledge that the best thing for both of you might be a different future.
Are Texas and Arch approaching that point?
I think they might be.
Somebody mentioned speculation to me today about Arch potentially transferring to Indiana next year. Let’s establish something immediately: I’m not reporting that a transfer is happening, that Indiana is pursuing him, or that anybody has made a decision.
But the fact that I can hear that suggestion and think, You know what? That might make sense, tells you how much this conversation has changed.
What once would have sounded like college football heresy now sounds like an option worth considering.
Maybe Arch doesn’t need more time at Texas. Maybe he needs somewhere else.
Texas has lost consecutive games to Oklahoma and Florida, and Ole Miss is coming to Austin this weekend. Steve Sarkisian has publicly backed Manning as his starter while making clear that he needs better play from him.
Watching these two quarterbacks right now, who would you trust more Saturday: Arch Manning or Trinidad Chambliss?
I’d take Chambliss.
That isn’t a declaration about which player will have the better NFL career. It’s an assessment of whom I trust to run an offense today. And that question alone would have sounded a whole lot different before this season.
With Arch, there are moments when you see it.
A throw. A drive. A flash of athletic ability.
You sit up and say, “Damn. There it is.”
Then comes a stretch that makes you wonder how you’re watching the same quarterback.
Is it Arch? Is it Sark? Is it what’s happening around them? Some combination of all three?
I don’t know how anybody watching from the outside can confidently assign percentages. But I also don’t think you have to solve that entire mystery before asking whether this partnership is bringing out the best in either guy.
Right now, I don’t think it is.
And if Arch decides to remain in college beyond this season, the question can’t simply be whether he wants to return to Texas.
Would Sark believe another year together is his best option, too?
That’s a fair football question. Texas has a program to run. Arch has a career to develop. Both sides should be allowed to evaluate what comes next without treating a separation like a betrayal.
Then there’s Indiana.
Would Curt Cignetti want him? Would he look at the talent and believe he could get the consistent quarterback out of Arch that we’ve only seen in flashes? Could he help Arch find his own version of the breakthrough Fernando Mendoza experienced?
Those are questions, not promises.
But if I’m Arch, and a coach with that kind of belief and a clear development plan offers me an opportunity, I’m listening very carefully.
At this point, I might take that bet.
Because I’m not ready to give up on Arch Manning. I’m questioning whether Texas is where he becomes his best self.
Remember Joe Burrow.
The quarterback who left Ohio State wasn’t yet the quarterback who delivered that extraordinary final season at LSU. Even his transformation from his first LSU season to his second was remarkable.
That doesn’t mean every struggling quarterback is one transfer away from becoming Joe Burrow. But it should remind us how foolish it is to treat development as a straight line—or assume the player we see today is the finished product.
Fit matters. Coaching matters. Confidence matters. The players around you matter.
Sometimes, changing those circumstances changes everything.
And draft expectations? Those things can evaporate.
Think about the lofty projections that surrounded Drew Allar and Cade Klubnik before their final college seasons. Think about the distance between the conversation surrounding Shedeur Sanders and where he was actually selected.
The lesson is that nobody gets drafted on an old mock draft.
Arch can’t afford to make his next decision based on who everybody once assumed he would become. He has to make it based on what will help him become a better quarterback.
That’s what makes this whole thing sad.
This was supposed to go so differently.
The Mannings chose Texas. Arch waited behind Quinn Ewers. There was patience. There was an apparent understanding that development mattered more than immediately handing him the offense.
From the outside, it looked like the luxury of having a plan—and the support system to stick with it.
I respected that. I still do.
But having a thoughtful plan doesn’t guarantee the plan works.
And sticking with it forever doesn’t prove you were right to make it.
Sometimes, it just means you’re reluctant to admit something has changed.
There’s still football to play. Arch has an opportunity against Ole Miss to begin changing this conversation. A strong finish would matter, and I’d be happy to watch him produce one.
But the question about his future is already fair.
If you’re Arch, where do you have the best chance to become a consistently good quarterback?
If you’re Sark, what gives Texas the best chance to win?
If those answers point in different directions, say it. Shake hands. Appreciate what everybody tried to build.
No hard feelings.
With apologies to Ella Langley, maybe it’s time to choose something else.
Arch may still become a great quarterback. A fresh start could be part of that story rather than evidence that the story is over.
His uncle Peyton had a pretty famous word for changing things at the line of scrimmage.
Omaha.
Maybe it’s time for an audible.
What do you think? Should Arch and Texas keep working through this, or could a fresh start help both sides? Leave your thoughts in the comments.
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Keep riding with Show Pony
Catch my latest conversation with Rick Neuheisel. We get into college football’s chaos, the playoff conversation, and the stories that make this sport so much fun.
Catch my conversation with ESPN’s Heather Dinich. We talk college football, her new book, and the determination—and help—that shaped her career. She’s one of the best in the business, and I loved this conversation.
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A little something close to my heart
Before you go, I want to share something special from my family.
My aunt, Georgiann Krulewitch, has a new children’s book, Josie and Jude Save the Day. It’s also a tribute to my Uncle Joe, whose full name was Joseph Jude. That gives the title a little extra meaning for those of us who loved him.
And there’s another family connection: my daughter Morgan and my nephew Evan are featured in it! Pretty cool to see the next generation become part of something that honors my uncle.
If you’re looking for a book to share with a child or grandchild, I’d love for you to take a look. Thank you for letting me share a little piece of our family with yours.