The coaching carousel is back at it.
Here comes the annual dumbass convention. A few ugly Saturdays, a furious fan base, and another athletic department announces that it has identified the problem.
Naturally, the problem is the guy wearing the headset.
Dave Aranda and Dave Doeren were shown the door over the weekend. Maryland got things started with Mike Locksley last Wednesday. And before everybody starts celebrating the possibilities, I have a question:
What, exactly, are you going to do differently besides change the coach?
Because if the answer is nothing, this is an expensive exercise in making angry people feel better for about fifteen minutes.
Then you get to do it all again.
We played Andrea Bocelli’s “Time to Say Goodbye” on Full Ride today as a nod to the departing coaches. We tried to send them out with a little class.
Bocelli is class. Let’s be honest.
But should it have been time to say goodbye? And before you answer, can somebody explain why these schools always seem more comfortable paying a coach to leave than confronting everything that made the job difficult in the first place?
I understand the frustration. Losing to Stanford stinks. The Vanderbilt ending was the kind of thing NC State fans cannot unsee. Doeren had an experienced quarterback in CJ Bailey and expectations that this team would be better.
Coaches own that. They should.
But the people employing them ought to own something, too.
Doeren stayed in Raleigh for fourteen seasons because he could coach. You don’t accidentally survive that long in this business. Before deciding the next guy will deliver everything he couldn’t, I would like to hear an honest assessment of what NC State is actually prepared to provide.
The same goes for Maryland. The same goes for Baylor.
Look internally. Start there.
The checks are real. The fresh start is a promise.
Here is what these decisions reportedly cost:
Baylor: Dave Aranda’s contract ran through the 2029 season—three full seasons beyond this year. His reported buyout is approximately $12 million.
NC State: Dave Doeren’s contract ran through December 31, 2029—also three full seasons beyond this year. His reported buyout is approximately $10.3 million, potentially reduced by earnings from future employment.
Maryland: Mike Locksley’s contract ran through the 2028 season—two full seasons beyond this year. His reported buyout is roughly $9.8 million to $9.9 million.
That is roughly $32 million combined to make three head coaches go away. Before paying their replacements. Before assembling new staffs. Before explaining how any of this makes the players on the field better.
Those figures also include obligations associated with the unfinished season. Baylor is private, so its contract details are less transparent; Maryland’s reported totals vary slightly by outlet. But the scale is clear: roughly $32 million combined, before sorting out assistant contracts, hiring the replacements, or paying whatever it takes to assemble their staffs.
That is a hell of a commitment to starting over.
Now compare it with what these schools reportedly spend on players.
Published estimates put Baylor’s annual roster budget at $20 million to $23 million and Maryland’s at $21 million to $25 million. Using those estimates, Aranda’s buyout amounts to approximately 52–60 percent of one Baylor roster budget. Locksley’s is roughly 39–47 percent of Maryland’s. These are estimates of roster spending, not audited accounts or the schools’ entire football operating budgets.
NC State’s number is murkier. The Athletic’s reported $22 million to $26 million range would make Doeren’s buyout roughly 40–47 percent of an annual roster budget. But Pack Pride disputed that estimate after speaking with sources familiar with the program’s finances, saying the real spending was lower. If so, the buyout represents an even larger share.
I know you cannot necessarily take every dollar earmarked for a buyout and immediately hand it to a defensive tackle. Donor commitments, contracts, and different funding sources complicate that.
But somebody still has to explain the priorities.
How does the emergency money keep appearing when it is time to fire somebody?
Where was that urgency when you were trying to help him win?
And who is asking whether the people writing these contracts have done a good job?
Be honest about what you are buying.
Maryland plays in a league with Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and a whole collection of programs with enormous football ambitions.
Membership in the Big Ten gives you access to money. It does not automatically give you the same football operation as the biggest spenders.
If Maryland wants different results, wonderful. Tell me what changes around the next coach. Tell me how you are going to recruit, retain, develop, and support the players differently.
Otherwise, you are handing somebody else the same assignment and hoping he has magical powers.
Baylor requires some honesty in the other direction, too.
Its estimated $20 million to $23 million roster budget reportedly ranks fourth in the Big 12. That is meaningful investment. It would be wrong to pretend Aranda was operating with nothing. The same reporting, though, puts Baylor well behind Texas Tech’s spending. There are different levels of buying power even inside the same conference.
So evaluate him against what Baylor actually supplied and the teams it actually plays.
I understand that Aranda’s tenure was uneven. I also think some people have a remarkably selective memory about Baylor football.
The Art Briles era produced wins and a scandal that brought enormous shame to the university. Matt Rhule built something impressive. Aranda himself delivered a conference championship and a Sugar Bowl victory.
Those accomplishments count. So do the disappointments.
But Baylor does not get to treat every successful stretch as its permanent birthright and every difficult stretch as proof that the coach has forgotten how football works.
What is sustainable there? What will it cost? And are the people making the decisions willing to sustain it?
Those questions deserve answers before the introductory press conference.
And why does everybody have to do this in October?
