Don’t Sleep on Minnesota: Kyler Murray Might Be the NFC North’s Biggest Wild Card
Everyone wants to crown the Bears. I’m not ready. And if Kevin O’Connell can do for Kyler Murray what he did for Sam Darnold, the Vikings could become one of the NFL’s biggest surprises.
I‘ve spent a good chunk of the last two days talking about this while filling in for Chris Russo on Mad Dog Unleashed.
And apparently I’ve struck a nerve.
Callers like Bill in Chevy Chase and the legendary Gummy Dave from Maryland have weighed in. Everybody seems to have a different answer for what the NFC North is going to look like.
The more we’ve talked about it, though, the more one question keeps bouncing around in my head:
Why not Minnesota?
Because there seems to be a coronation happening with the Chicago Bears. The Bears have arrived.
Caleb Williams is becoming a superstar. Ben Johnson has figured everything out. Chicago won 11 games, won the division and finally won a playoff game. Now they’re ready to take another giant step.
Maybe.
I’m not arguing that Chicago isn’t good. I’m asking something different:
Are we sure they’re that good?
Before We Crown the Bears...
There was something almost magical about Chicago’s 2025 season.
And magic can be difficult to reproduce.
The Bears finished with an NFL-best plus-22 turnover differential. They led the NFL with 33 takeaways while committing only 11 giveaways. It was the first time since the 2011 49ers that one team led the league in takeaways while also committing the fewest turnovers.
That’s incredible. It’s also a massive part of Chicago’s success that I’m not willing to automatically carry over into 2026.
Turnovers fluctuate. Then there were the comebacks. Chicago won six regular-season games after trailing in the final two minutes.
Six!
They did it once more against Green Bay in the playoffs, meaning the Bears won seven games between the regular season and postseason after trailing inside the final two minutes. No NFL team since at least the 1970 merger had done that.
That’s awesome. It says something about Caleb Williams. It says something about Ben Johnson. It says something about the belief that developed inside that team.
But I’m also not sure it’s a sustainable formula.
There is a difference between saying the Bears were lucky and saying some of the things that contributed to an 11-win season are difficult to reproduce.
I’m saying the latter.
So if the turnovers come back toward earth and two or three of those miraculous finishes go the other direction, what exactly are the 2026 Chicago Bears?
Still good? Absolutely.
The runaway favorite in the NFC North? I’m not there yet.
Which Brings Me Back to Minnesota
Seriously.
Why not the Vikings?
The NFL has this bizarre tendency to convince us that whatever happened last season establishes a permanent hierarchy.
It doesn’t. Minnesota went 9-8 last year. Do you remember what happened the year before that?
The Vikings went 14-3.
Kevin O’Connell didn’t suddenly forget how to coach football. Brian Flores didn’t suddenly forget how to coach defense. Justin Jefferson is still one of the best receivers on Earth. T.J. Hockenson is still there.
And now Minnesota has added perhaps the most fascinating reclamation project in the entire NFL.
Kyler Murray.
O’Connell officially named Murray the Vikings’ starting quarterback Tuesday after what Minnesota had characterized as a genuine competition with J.J. McCarthy.
And I can’t stop thinking about it.
Because we’ve seen something remarkably similar happen in Minnesota before.
Remember What Kevin O’Connell Did With Sam Darnold?
Think about what Sam Darnold was when he arrived in Minnesota. Talented.
Former high draft pick. Didn’t work with his original franchise.
Turnover prone. Questionable decision-making. Probably a bridge quarterback.
Then he got around Kevin O’Connell, Justin Jefferson and a functional offensive environment. Suddenly everybody had to reconsider whether Darnold himself had been the entire problem.
Now O’Connell gets Kyler Murray.
And here’s what’s interesting:
Kyler has already been considerably better in the NFL than Darnold was before arriving in Minnesota.
Murray isn’t some quarterback whose NFL success exists entirely in our imagination. We’ve seen it.
He was the No. 1 overall pick. He won Offensive Rookie of the Year.
He’s made two Pro Bowls.
In 2021, he completed 69.2% of his passes, threw 24 touchdowns in 14 games and finished with a 100.6 passer rating.
Arizona started that season 10-2.
Even as recently as 2024, Murray started all 17 games and completed 68.8% of his passes for 3,851 yards, 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, while adding 572 yards on the ground.
That’s not an elite quarterback season. But it’s certainly not evidence of a quarterback who can no longer play.
Which makes me wonder:
What if Kyler Murray was a square peg in a round hole?
What If Arizona Never Completely Figured Out Kyler?
I’m not absolving Murray.
There have been legitimate questions about consistency, preparation, durability and whether he ever developed enough as a traditional pocket passer to complement his extraordinary athletic ability.
Those questions don’t disappear because he’s wearing purple.
But sometimes the NFL becomes obsessed with forcing quarterbacks to become something they’re not.
Kyler Murray is 5-foot-10.
He’s an incredible athlete. He can create outside structure. He changes the geometry of a defense with his legs.
He can make throws from bizarre platforms that most quarterbacks wouldn’t even attempt.
Maybe the answer isn’t trying to transform Kyler Murray into the quarterback you’d design in a laboratory. Maybe the answer is designing an offense around the quarterback he actually is.
And doesn’t that sound like something Kevin O’Connell might be pretty damn good at?
O’Connell Doesn’t Need Kyler to Be Superman
This is what I love about Minnesota. Kyler doesn’t have to rescue this franchise. He has to play point guard.
Get the football to Justin Jefferson.
Use Hockenson.
Take what the defense gives you. Operate within O’Connell’s structure. And then, when everything breaks down?
Go be Kyler Murray.
That’s the combination that intrigues me. O’Connell provides the structure.
Murray provides the chaos. And Murray has everything in the world to play for. He’s 29 years old.
Arizona moved on. The gigantic contract is gone.
The expectations surrounding him have completely changed. This might be his last great opportunity to change the way his NFL career is remembered.
Play well in Minnesota and suddenly Kyler Murray isn’t the disappointing former No. 1 pick Arizona discarded. He’s a legitimate starting quarterback again.
Maybe even a really good one.
But I Have a J.J. McCarthy Concern
There is another side to this that we talked about on Mad Dog.
I worry about J.J. McCarthy.
Not because I know what he’s thinking. I don’t. Neither does anybody calling a radio show or writing a column.
But I think it’s fair to wonder where he is mentally and emotionally entering Year 3.
Think about what has happened. Minnesota drafted him 10th overall in 2024. He tore his meniscus and lost his entire rookie season. He finally got his opportunity in 2025 and struggled.
Then came more injuries — a high ankle sprain, a concussion and a hairline fracture in his throwing hand.
Now he’s entering Year 3 and has lost the quarterback competition to Murray. O’Connell continues to publicly emphasize McCarthy’s development and the importance of having him ready, so there is no basis for claiming McCarthy has checked out or lost confidence.
But come on. He’s human. Wouldn’t you wonder how he’s handling this? You lose your rookie year to injury. You finally get the job.
You don’t play particularly well.
You battle more injuries.
Then your organization brings in a quarterback another franchise discarded and he takes your job.
That’s adversity.
Maybe McCarthy responds beautifully. Maybe sitting behind Murray becomes the best thing that ever happened to him. Maybe it gives him time to develop without having an entire franchise sitting on his shoulders.
But Minnesota may need him.
Murray hasn’t exactly been Cal Ripken.
That’s the part of the Vikings that makes me nervous.
The Murray experiment could work spectacularly and Minnesota could still find itself needing McCarthy at some point. If that happens, what version of J.J. McCarthy are they getting?
I don’t know.
Neither does anybody else.
And What Exactly Are the Lions?
I’m also not burying Detroit. At all. The Lions went only 9-8 last season.
But here’s a number that should make everybody reconsider dismissing them:
Detroit had a plus-68 point differential.
Chicago’s was only plus-26.
That doesn’t mean Detroit was secretly better than Chicago. Wins matter.
But it does tell me Detroit wasn’t some bad football team that needs to be torn apart.
If the Lions can get their defense healthy and make enough improvement on that side of the ball to complement an offense that can still score, why exactly are we declaring their window closed?
I’m not.
Green Bay Scares Me for a Different Reason
The Packers are different.
My concern with Green Bay is whether they have enough depth to withstand the injuries that inevitably accumulate over a 17-game NFL season.
But if they’re healthy? I don’t want to play them. Jordan Love threw 23 touchdowns against only six interceptions last season.
At full strength, Green Bay can beat anybody in this division. So when I look at the NFC North, I don’t see Chicago and everybody else.
I see four fascinating teams with legitimate questions.
Chicago: Can they reproduce an NFL-best turnover margin and all those ridiculous late-game escapes?
Detroit: Can the defense improve enough to support an offense that was still productive?
Green Bay: Can they stay healthy enough to maximize a dangerous roster?
And then...
Minnesota: What happens if Kevin O’Connell fixes Kyler Murray?
That’s the one nobody seems to be talking about enough.
Could Minnesota Be This Year’s Seattle?
Every NFL season produces a team we collectively miss.
We spend the summer staring at last year’s standings and convincing ourselves we understand what’s coming.
Then a quarterback finds the right coach. A defense gets better. A few players rediscover themselves.
A team wins a couple games early. Confidence builds. And suddenly the team we had penciled in for eight or nine wins isn’t fighting for the final wild card.
It’s fighting for something much bigger. Why can’t that be Minnesota? I’m not predicting the Vikings win the Super Bowl.
I’m saying stop treating them like an afterthought.
They were 14-3 two seasons ago. They still won nine games during a messy 2025.
They have Kevin O’Connell.
They have Brian Flores.
They have Justin Jefferson.
And now O’Connell gets a 29-year-old former No. 1 overall pick and two-time Pro Bowler whose career has reached a crossroads.
Maybe Murray is cooked.
Maybe Arizona correctly concluded that the best version of Kyler Murray is gone.
Maybe McCarthy ends up playing significant snaps anyway. Those outcomes are entirely possible. But there’s another possibility. Maybe Arizona was simply the wrong situation at the wrong time. Maybe Murray needed a coach who understands exactly what he is instead of obsessing over what he isn’t.
Maybe playing with Justin Jefferson in Kevin O’Connell’s offense reminds everyone why Kyler Murray was the first player selected in the draft.
Maybe Minnesota becomes one of those teams we look back at in November and say:
How did we not see this coming?
That’s what I’ve been kicking around with callers on Mad Dog for the last couple of days.
Bill in Chevy Chase had thoughts.
Gummy Dave from Maryland had thoughts. Everybody has thoughts about this division.
Mine is pretty simple. I’m not ready to crown Chicago. I’m not burying Detroit. I don’t want anything to do with a healthy Green Bay team.
And Minnesota?
Why the hell not?
Sometimes careers end when a quarterback leaves his first franchise. Sometimes leaving is exactly what saves them.
Kevin O’Connell has already helped rewrite one quarterback’s story in Minnesota.
Now he gets Kyler Murray.
Sleep on that combination if you want.
I won’t.
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Go Bears